Clinical prediction rule for SARS-CoV-2 infection from 116 U.S. emergency departments 2-22-2021.

OBJECTIVES: Accurate and reliable criteria to rapidly estimate the probability of infection with the novel coronavirus-2 that causes the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) and associated disease (COVID-19) remain an urgent unmet need, especially in emergency care. The objective was to derive and validate a clinical prediction score for SARS-CoV-2 infection that uses simple criteria widely available at the point of care. METHODS: Data came from the registry data from the national REgistry of suspected COVID-19 in EmeRgency care (RECOVER network) comprising 116 hospitals from 25 states in the US. Clinical variables and 30-day outcomes were abstracted from medical records of 19,850 emergency department (ED) patients tested for SARS-CoV-2. The criterion standard for diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 required a positive molecular test from a swabbed sample or positive antibody testing within 30 days. The prediction score was derived from a 50% random sample (n = 9,925) using unadjusted analysis of 107 candidate variables as a screening step, followed by stepwise forward logistic regression on 72 variables. RESULTS: Multivariable regression yielded a 13-variable score, which was simplified to a 13-point score: +1 point each for age>50 years, measured temperature>37.5°C, oxygen saturation<95%, Black race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, household contact with known or suspected COVID-19, patient reported history of dry cough, anosmia/dysgeusia, myalgias or fever; and -1 point each for White race, no direct contact with infected person, or smoking. In the validation sample (n = 9,975), the probability from logistic regression score produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI: 0.79-0.81), and this level of accuracy was retained across patients enrolled from the early spring to summer of 2020. In the simplified score, a score of zero produced a sensitivity of 95.6% (94.8-96.3%), specificity of 20.0% (19.0-21.0%), negative likelihood ratio of 0.22 (0.19-0.26). Increasing points on the simplified score predicted higher probability of infection (e.g., >75% probability with +5 or more points). CONCLUSION: Criteria that are available at the point of care can accurately predict the probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. These criteria could assist with decisions about isolation and testing at high throughput checkpoints.

Effect of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic on the U.S. Emergency Medical Services System: A Preliminary Report.

BACKGROUND: Our objective was to quantify trends in emergency medical services (EMS) incidents as the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the United States and to determine if there was an increase in EMS-attended deaths. METHODS: We conducted a 3-year comparative retrospective cohort analysis of data from the National EMS Information System. Data were included if care was provided between the 40th and 21st weeks of the next year and compared over 3 years. We included incidents identified through 9-1-1 where patient contact was made. The total number of EMS incidents per week was used as the denominator to calculate the rate of patient deaths and possible injury. We assessed for temporal and seasonal trends. RESULTS: Starting in the 10th week of 2020 there was a decrease in the number of EMS activations in the United States compared to the prior weeks and the same time period in previous years. The number of activations between week 10 and week 16 decreased by 140,292 or 26.1%. The portion of EMS activations reporting a patient disposition of death nearly doubled between the 11th and 15th weeks of 2020 (1.49%-2.77% of all activations). The number of EMS activations documenting a possible injury decreased from 18.43% to 15.27% between weeks 10 and 13. CONCLUSION: We found that early in the COVID-19 outbreak there was a significant decrease in the number of EMS responses across the United States. Simultaneously the rate of EMS-attended death doubled, while the rate of injuries decreased.